The trend in the "three quarter news" is stable, stabilized, stabilized, stabilized
According to the provincial statistical bureau data, the previous three quarters, the total production value of the province is 100 million yuan, the year-on-year increase, which is lower than the national growth rate. From a percentage point in the first quarter, a percentage of "half a year" is a percentage point in the first three quarters. Since the beginning of this year, Sichuan has always maintained a chasing posture, GDP growth rate and national gap are constantly narrowing. How should these data see? On October 19, the reporter conducted an interview.
Look at key indicators: The two-year average growth rate increased in the third quarter of the GDP growth in the year-on-year, down a percentage point in the first half of the year, and the GDP growth rate is low in the first three quarters. Falling, very normal. Jiang Yong, president of the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that this year, the province has developed a multi-impact of epidemics, mood, etc., and continues to maintain stable recovery.
Since the first three quarters of the previous year, the number of low-basis changes, and the double impact of continued to restore the development this year, the first three quarters of Sichuan, like the country, have an increase in the increase in falling seasants. The gap should be rationally.
"Influenced by the epidemic, the east coastal area of ??the export-oriented economy has experienced the growth of outbreak orders, so the economic growth rate is faster; relatively, Sichuan’s development is relatively stable, the fluctuation is not large, plus the landlood, in the supply The chain, transportation is affected, resulting in a gap between the national level. "Professor, Southwest University of Finance, CEO, Chief Researcher Tang Jiqiang said.
At the press conference, Jiang Yong repeatedly mentioned an indicator – two years average growth rate.
This indicator is frequently mentioned in the 2021 statistics.
According to industry insiders, the main reason is that in 2020 affected, the economy is greatly impacted, resulting in a lower base. In order to eliminate the influence of the boundary base, the number of corresponding symbiors in 2019 is used to calculate two-year average growth in two years, which can better reflect the continuation and comparativeability of economic development. From the average growth rate of two years, the average growth percentage of two years in the first three quarters in Sichuan is more than the national (%) high, and the gap between the normalization of the Sichuan normally continues to shrink. "Shows the good situation of Sichuan’s economic operation to maintain stability, steady and good, and stabilized.
"From the specific indicator, the first three quarters, the first industry in Sichuan, the increase in industrial added value, the added value of the tertiary industry, the total retail sales of the province’s social consumer goods is higher than the national, 1, a percentage point .
"Description The province continues to advance the structural reform of supply side, continuously optimize the level of industrial chain supply chain, and further consolidate the development of industrial development, and the production supply is overall stable.
Jiang Yong said.
Watching work ideas: Support Sichuan quickly catch up with biggest strength, fast, what is behind? Since the beginning of this year, Sichuan has made a good job of "six stable" work in accordance with the work of "stabilizing project, strong industry, promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, grading project, reducing new, smooth and promoting quality". .
Jiang Yong listed a string of data: the province’s summer grain output 10,000 tons, increased production of 10,000-scale production area, it is expected to receive harvest; 32 industrial major industries have increased, all the top ten industries grow; 117 The main industrial products have 86 realization growth; the added value of the accommodation and catering industry increased year-on-year, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased year-on-year … The internal and external demand was also accelerated. The National Day holiday that has just passed, has carried out colorful promotions throughout the province, and eats the full recovery of tourism and entertainment, and the consumption structure is optimized. According to the supervision of 449 key trade circulation enterprises according to the Provincial Department of Commerce, there is about 41 billion yuan in sales (operating income) before the National Day holiday, which is about 6% in 2019, 18%, respectively.
Behind the fire in the consumer market, the total retail sales in Sichuan Province has increased the monthly growth rate of more than 6 months. Investment continues to play a key role.
On October 8, Sichuan Province, the fourth quarter of Sichuan Province, the major projects were set in. This focus on 53 major projects, 53 major projects, total investment of 179.8 billion yuan, involving infrastructure, industrial upgrading, will provide a solid guarantee for achieving the annual target task, providing powerful support for economic high quality development . Innovation drivers become new kinens that lead growth.
In June, the Ninth Plenary Session of the 11th National Committee of the Provincial Party Committee reviewed the "Decision of the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee on In-depth Promotion of Innovation", and a series of policy measures have taken effectively.
The increased value of the five major modern industries and high-tech manufacturing increases by 100,%; high-tech service industry enterprise business income growth "Innovation investment has greatly improved, and the growth of emerging industries will increase, and innovation contributions are increasing.
"Jiang Yong analysis. From quality efficiency, industrial enterprises in the first to August, the total profits increased by the total profits, all of the 41 industrial major industries achieved profit; the total profits of service industry enterprises above the company increased the total amount of services.
In the first half of the year, the unit GDP energy consumption fell by year. Industrial electricity, railway cargo turnover achieves two digits growth, and has supported support for steady quality benefits. Look at the development situation: It is still optimistic about the growth prospects, IMF (International Monetary Fund) will cut in 2021 China GDP growth rate to 8%, which has fallen percentage points than previous forecasts. Under the influence of the global epidemic, the rise in commodity prices, labor shortage and shortage of key parts supply shortages, how is the Sichuan, the future economy trend? "It is expected that the province’s economy will continue to restore, but due to the loss of the base of the base last year, the economy will remain stable, steadily reinforce, stabilized and highly improved development." Jiang Jiang War analysis should look at the development trend of Sichuan from four aspects.
Industrial foundation is more consolidated. Small spring and big spring crop harvests are better than the previous year, and the amount of pigs in the pigs is stable, and the first industry is expected to return normalization growth.
Industrial key industries, the advantageous industry is stable, new production can accelerate release, industry maintains the momentum of the country.
Cultural tourism, accommodation and catering, transportation and other industries are expected to accelerate growth, and the service industry is expected to continue to maintain steady growth. Domestic demand has accelerated release. This year’s demand has been significantly accelerated, and the consumption potential is expected to continue to be released.
At the same time, the construction project of Shuangcheng Economic Circle in Chengdu is one after another. The current four-quarter major project is concentrated, manufacturing investment, infrastructure construction investment recovery speed, and investment physical volume accelerates. "The construction of the double city economy in Cheng and Chongqing has brought huge economic incremental space to Sichuan. A series of policy benefits will increase the tilt of major projects and funds. For a long time in the future, it is investive in the development of Sichuan economic development. Tang Jiqiang said. Market confidence continues to improve. In September, the province’s manufacturing PMI is%, higher than the national percentage point; non-manufacturing business activities index, higher than the national high percentage point, rebounding a percentage point from the previous month, reflecting market confidence is also constantly recovering.
The macro situation is overall.
"Although IMF is expected to increase global economic growth, it is still resumed from the global economic performance, and it is still optimistic about China’s economic growth prospects.
Jiang Yong said that my country’s implementation of policy across cycle regulation, increase economic structural adjustment, strengthening food energy protection stable, landing "Huiqi’s Breakfast" policy, the macro policy effect continues to emerge, will also promote our province’s economy accelerated recovery .
(Reporter Zhang Wei) [Editor: Jiang Yan].